So for example, in EPL the average goals per game is about 2.6. So in overall, all EPL matches should have a total goal handicap of 2.5 for all their matches.

Next the bookies will evaluate on the goal tendency based on the home ground of the team. If lets say Swansea home ground produces very little goals, the total goal handicap will be set for 2.25 in normal circumstances for football matches.

Lastly, if the teams involved is unevenly matched. Lets say Man Utd away give 1 ball to Swansea and hence, the total goal handicap for the game will be placed higher than the normal 2.25. Probably it will be set at 2.75 instead. Make sense to you?

Look at the following chart.

Let X = the normal total goal handicap for a match

                                                                                    BOOKIES EXPECTATION OF GOALS IN A GAME

           VERY UNDER                 UNDER                                     NORMAL                                      OVER                              VERY OVER

             X - 0.5                                 X - 0.25                                         X                                                 X+0.25                             X+0.5
 

So to give you a better impression, let me provide an example.

Man Utd Vs Arsenal

Both teams standard arent too far off isnt it? And based on the average goals per match in EPL and with no teams giving more than 0.75 or 1 ball to each other,

Bookies should set this total goal handicap at 2.5 right?

But lets say bookie set 2.75, isnt it telling you bookies are expecting this match to over? or if bookies set 2.25, isnt it telling u it will be under?

With the above mentioned in mind, 3 Tier Handicap Ruling is just taking 'Under, Normal, Over' at the above chart. The whole chart can be called 5 Tier Handicap Ruling but lets not think so much ok?

Not by might, nor by power, but by my spirit, saith the Lord of hosts - Zechariah 4:6 KJV

EPL = 2.25, 2.5 , 2.75 (Some teams like Swansea, Wigan, Stoke, QPR,etc at home is 2, 2.25, 2.5)

ISA = 2, 2.25, 2.5

GBL = 2.25, 2.5, 2.75 (Some teams like Dortmund, Schalke, Bayern,etc at home is 2.5, 2.75 ,3)

SPL = 2, 2.25, 2.5 (Some teams like Valencia, Malaga, Atletico Madrid, etc at home is 2.25, 2.5 , 2.75)

French Ligue 1 = 2, 2.25, 2.5

The reason why u need to understand bookies impression of the goal tendency in a match is to help u decide better on betting on Asian Handicap.

For example, if the total goal is set at 3.5 but one team is giving Asian Handicap 2.5. You can safely say the goals should mostly come from the team that is giving 2.5 handicap.

Like wise if the total goal is set at 3 goals but both teams are level on handicap. You can safely say the goals will come at both ends, right?

Any questions, feel free to ask. Thanks.

quote originally posted by lacroix:

no need. it is better if u find out the total goal handicap odds on average set by bookies on a particular match for a team at home for the season.

 

This message was edited by KlavierJoenessGavin on 15-Apr-2012 @ 5:16 AM

Upcoming game at 7am:

Disclaimer: I am using current odds and hence analysis might not be accurate because I haven check on opening odds.

Ok for MLS games, the 3 Tier is 2, 2.25, 2.5 for most games.

Bookie opened 2.5 win 81 now clearly show their expectation of over for this match.

New York Red Bulls is giving a handicap of 0.75 and hence, the final result of the game, Red Bulls should be scoring more goals than Earthquakes.

**Bear in mind, bookies expectation for over DOES NOT MEANS SURE OVER because the 'codes aka odds signals' still lies on the water money that the odds trader sets. This one I will not go thru. Maybe next time.=)**

Another different example:

For French Ligue games:

3 Tier is 2, 2.25, 2.5

Bookie set 2 goals for this game clearly showed their expectation for this match is UNDER.

But Saint Etienne is giving 0.75 which is consider quite high because bookies are expecting 2 goals or lesser in this game.

It goes to show Saint Etienne might be the only team scoring in this game and it seems to be a ploy to ask ppl to eat handicap since the handicap is high when the expectation of goals is so little. Saint Etienne might win!

**Bear in mind, since we analysed Saint Etienne might win and they might even win 3-0 and hence, bookies expectation of UNDER doesnt mean sure under, it means in this case Saint Etienne should win if not why set so high handicap and low total goals?**

This message was edited by KlavierJoenessGavin on 15-Apr-2012 @ 5:32 AM

Not by might, nor by power, but by my spirit, saith the Lord of hosts - Zechariah 4:6 KJV

Lesson 1 is basically teaching you one of the odds signal that is referring to over will open in the game. There are other odds signals which I haven go thru yet and I wouldnt say I know all the odds signals in this world so there are games which opened over might be not within my knowledge.

besides, there are games which favours give ball handicap to clear. when give ball handicap clears, sometimes the game will occur to be over even though the odds signals under. in such scenarios, i would tend to give ball rather than bet under.

remember the bookies could only control or predict 1 out of the four outcomes of give or eat and over or under. the adjacent outcome that comes along with eat or give or over and under is just a coincidence. Meaning to say:

Lets say bookies odds signals give 1.5 balls. FT 5-0. Over ball also win. or FT 2-0 but under wins.

Lets say bookies odds signals under 2.5 balls FT 0-0. Eat ball happens to win, etc.

for saint etienne game, bookies are firmed that etienne will win but happened that opposite team scored and saint etienne got to work harder to score another goal since they should be winning this game. this is why soccer is a sport and in sports, no outcome is for sure because there are human factors involved in participating it and hence, there is no sure win.

what i am doing now is actually decoding what the bookies are forecasting. it is because of the bookies' forecast, they can manipulate the odds such that punters will be taking opposite of their forecasts and lose.

quote originally posted by EarningExtra$:

This one I dunno. Till now after alot of research I cant tell how the bookies set the water money. I believe it is by their own discretion before they lay the odds.

Reason is since I know what odds signals lies beneath most water money and hence, the bookies set the water money always in favour of one out come.

1. Give ball

2. Eat ball

3. Over ball

4. Under ball

Maciam multiple choice.

So once the odds is set, the odds traders can slowly adjust the water money or odds based on the following factors:

1. Team news

2. Market influence

3. Lay trap for punters to fall into it.

This is why I cannot stress further why initial odds is extremely important.

This message was edited by KlavierJoenessGavin on 17-Apr-2012 @ 2:42 PM

Upcoming game tomorrow 21:30PM:

I dun have the inital odds. But this is a good game to monitor. if water money drops for give ball lower than under before KO, sure over.

For polish games 2.5 is considered highest among the 3 Tier Handicap. The bet offer for the above post is freakingly 2.75.

For boca home games, 3 Tier handicap is 2, 2.25, 2.5 but this game is 3.25 -  3 levels higher.

Main reason due to huge handicap of -2 but it is just 1 ball higher than -1 which is the maximum handicap where 3 Tier Ruling is valid.

Not by might, nor by power, but by my spirit, saith the Lord of hosts - Zechariah 4:6 KJV

yes but i am not sure how they derive the exact water money. because simply they can put

-1.75 win 75

or they suka suka put -1.75 win 30 instead of -2.25 win 80.

They can open whatever they one actually. The model they use to derive asian handicap is something call goal rating.

It is a formula based on the total number of goals scored in the competition for both teams combined with the goal strength of at home and at away for respective teams and with some other factors involved. I lost that pdf file. let me search and i show u.

Not by might, nor by power, but by my spirit, saith the Lord of hosts - Zechariah 4:6 KJV

Sorry admin but the pdf file very hard for me to cut and paste contents here.

For those interested in Asian Handicap Derivation, please refer to this link: http://www.football-bets.co.uk/download/compile-soccer-odds.pdf

Dun bother about what ebook the main website is selling cos the above one is FOC and u can take reference on the part which is talking about goal ratings into poisson model calculation.

Poisson regression model is used for TG. The stats bookies have determines the TG handicap for each league which is why I created the 3 Tier Handicap Ruling.

If u wanna know why ppl use Poisson? It is because this formula was supposingly created to calculate certain repetitive events in a given amount of time. Yes an nobel award winning formula.

This message was edited by KlavierJoenessGavin on 17-Apr-2012 @ 4:01 PM

 Openning odds: 2.5 is normal for Bristol home games but favour over. West ham giving quite high balls for an away match. Looks good for West Ham to give ball.

Current odds: TG rose to 2.75 Over water money higher than under ball. Give ball water money having a decent gap towards Under ball water money.

It seems West Ham looks good to win. First leg West Ham home 0-0. This game sure got goals.

0.75 is quite a high handicap for Lesson 1's over ball betting odds signal. I always stress that the lower the handicap the scoring burden is shared with both teams. Can West Ham score 3 goals? Take West Ham better if odds remains like this or similar to opening odds.