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Under 2.5 Goals @1.87 Querétaro FC vs Club Necaxa Briefing Doc: Liga MX, Apertura, Round 10
Date & Time: 28/09/2024, 09:00 UTC (01:00 PDT) Venue: Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago de Queretaro, Mexico Competition: Liga MX, Apertura, Round 10
Teams' Current Form & Standing
- Querétaro FC (Home)Rank: 17th (7 Points)
- Form: W-D-D-W-L (Last 5 Matches)
- Goals Scored/Conceded: 7/18 (Last 10 Matches)
- Sofascore Average Rating: 6.69
- Club Necaxa (Away)Rank: 11th (12 Points)
- Form: D-W-W-L-D (Last 5 Matches)
- Goals Scored/Conceded: 13/8 (Last 9 Matches)
- Sofascore Average Rating: 6.90
Head-to-Head Statistics
- Last 8 Matches:Querétaro FC Wins: 2 (25%)
- Draws: 2 (25%)
- Club Necaxa Wins: 4 (50%)
- Average Goals per Game: 1.3
- Last 7 Matches (Goals Scored/Conceded):Querétaro FC: 0.6 goals scored, 1.3 goals conceded
- Club Necaxa: 1.4 goals scored, 1.9 goals conceded
Key Insights & Trends
- Betting Odds:Singapore Pools predict a slight advantage for **Necaxa (Away Win: 42.4% probability, odds $2.10) ** over Querétaro (Home Win: 29.7% probability, odds $3.00). The draw sits at 27.9% probability with odds of $3.20.
- Handicap:Necaxa are slight favourites with a -1.5 handicap at opening odds of $3.75, giving them a 24.2% chance to clear the handicap. Querétaro, as the underdog, have a 75.8% handicap advantage at odds of $1.20.
- Over/Under:The match is predicted to be a high-scoring affair, with a 51% chance of Over 2.5 goals at odds of $1.80, compared to a 49% chance of Under 2.5 goals at $1.87.
- Recent Performance:Querétaro are unbeaten in their last 3 matches, suggesting a potential upturn in form.
- Both teams have been involved in several low-scoring matches recently. Six of Querétaro's last six matches and four of Necaxa's last five have seen under 2.5 goals.
- Head-to-Head Pattern:Necaxa have won four of their last eight encounters with Querétaro, indicating a possible advantage.
- However, both teams have scored in six of their last seven meetings, suggesting a potential for both teams to find the back of the net.
Predicted Outcomes
Based on the provided information and analysis:
- Home Win (Querétaro): 30% - While on a good run of form, Querétaro’s overall performance and head-to-head record against Necaxa do not strongly support a home win.
- Draw: 30% - The recent low-scoring trend for both teams and the head-to-head statistics, where draws are frequent, point towards a significant probability of a draw.
- Away Win (Necaxa): 40% - Necaxa enter the match as slight favourites, with a better head-to-head record against Querétaro. Their away form is a concern, but their overall stronger recent performance, despite some low scoring games, gives them an edge.
Other Predictions
- Both Teams to Score: 70% - This bet holds value based on the head-to-head trend and the odds of 1.70.
- Under 2.5 Goals: 60% - Despite the "Over" prediction by sgodds.com, the consistent trend of low-scoring matches for both teams leans towards under 2.5 goals.
- First Team to Score: Necaxa (40%) - Based on their recent offensive performances and head-to-head dominance, Necaxa have a slightly higher chance of opening the scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Querétaro’s Home Advantage: Will playing at home provide the necessary boost for Querétaro to overcome their underdog status?
- Necaxa’s Away Form: Can Necaxa improve on their inconsistent away form and capitalize on their slight advantage?
- Tactical Approaches: Analyzing the formations and tactical setups employed by both teams will provide further insights into the potential flow of the game.
Disclaimer
These predictions and probabilities are based on statistical analysis and historical data. It's essential to remember that football is a fluid and unpredictable sport, and unforeseen factors can influence the outcome of any match.
"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible.
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)
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